Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC) and a global leader in helping clients realize their investment objectives, shape the future of work and enhance health and retirement outcomes for their people, today released new research, Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry: Labor Market Projections by 2028. The report projects a nationwide healthcare worker shortage of 100,000 by 2028.

Even before COVID-19, the US healthcare labor market faced challenges with the demand for professionals in healthcare occupations outpacing supply. Mercer’s new report highlights how factors such as accelerated resignations, burnout among healthcare workers, an aging population and wages that lag the broader labor market are contributing to the decline in labor supply in certain states, particularly for primary care physicians, advanced practice providers¹ and nurses.

“A shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers will exacerbate existing disparities in healthcare access in certain states,” said Dan Lezotte, a Partner in Mercer’s US Workforce Strategy and Analytics Practice. “It is imperative that healthcare systems take action and develop strategies to address shortages so patient care is not impacted.”

The analysis emphasizes the importance of having a strong workforce strategy to compete both with other healthcare organizations and with employers in other industries. To combat labor shortages, employers will need to develop comprehensive strategic plans and innovative tactics for attracting and retaining talent, encompassing strong compensation and benefits packages and creative ways of sourcing talent, redesigning work, optimizing schedules and more.

It is also crucial for healthcare systems and governments to work together to address specific labor gaps across locations and occupations, including subspecialties within healthcare labor, such as physicians who specialize in women’s health or young children. Through collaboration, states can close these gaps and create stronger healthcare systems.

State disparities in primary care subspecialties

The analysis finds that access to qualified primary care will vary across the US. Deficits in specialized primary care physicians — such as obstetrician-gynecologists (OB-GYNs), pediatricians and family medicine doctors — will be acute in certain states. For example, despite an overall surplus of healthcare workers, California is expected to face a shortage of over 2,500 primary care physicians, with pediatricians and family medicine physicians accounting for more than half of this shortage, creating barriers to accessing specialized primary care.

A severe shortage of nursing assistants expected nationally

Nursing assistants have the biggest projected deficit over any other analyzed healthcare occupation, signaling the need to improve talent attraction and retention strategies for this segment. By 2028, Mercer expects a projected deficit of over 73,000 nursing assistants nationwide. The slow growth rate (0.1%) of nursing assistants, particularly in states such as New York, Texas and California, where shortages of over 11,000, 12,000 and 14,000 workers respectively are projected, will directly impact patient care and the burnout and attrition rates of other healthcare workers that depend on them.

Surplus of registered nurses (RNs) and home health and personal care aides (HHAs)

At a national level, the supply of RNs is projected to outpace demand, resulting in an estimated surplus of nearly 30,000 RNs by 2028. However, employers in states such as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will experience shortages and may look to Pennsylvania for supply.

Encouragingly, the labor supply of HHAs is projected to exceed demand nationally by almost 48,000 workers by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%. However, healthcare employers will be competing with many other industries for these lower-wage workers and may find it difficult to hire them unless wages are competitive.

Nurse practitioners on the rise but shortages expected

Nurse practitioners are expected to have the fastest growth rate (3.5%). Despite this growth, however, the analysis projects a nationwide shortage of nurse practitioners. The combined impact of both nurse practitioner and physician shortages may disrupt preventative care delivery in some states.

William Self, a Partner and Mercer’s Global Workforce Strategy and Analytics Leader, said, “American healthcare workers are under enormous strain. Burnout, under-compensation and wage stagnation have had material impacts on the supply of healthcare labor.”

Mr. Self continued, “Prolonged inflation in healthcare costs, combined with these critical labor shortages, could present an existential threat to some healthcare systems. The inability to attract the right healthcare labor will make operating in certain locations much more difficult and increase health equity gaps, like those between rural and urban populations.”

View an interactive map of Mercer’s US healthcare labor projections across a sample of healthcare occupations here.

About the Report

The Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry: Labor Market Projections by 2028 provides a comprehensive examination of the changing labor market for healthcare occupations across all 50 states, utilizing a combination of Mercer research, publicly available data and data provided by Lightcast. Find more information here.

About Mercer

Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), is a global leader in helping clients realize their investment objectives, shape the future of work and enhance health and retirement outcomes for their people. Marsh McLennan is a global leader in risk, strategy and people, advising clients in 130 countries across four businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Oliver Wyman. With annual revenue of $23 billion and more than 85,000 colleagues, Marsh McLennan helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit mercer.com, or follow on LinkedIn and X.

¹ Advanced practice providers, such as nurse practitioners or physician assistants, perform medical activities typically performed by a physician.

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