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By Kyle Anthony, Benzinga
French philosopher Voltaire is credited with saying, “History never repeats itself. Man, always does.” This adage aptly conveys the nature of human beings to repeatedly engage in risky behaviors despite history being a guide as to how said behavior could play out.
Evidence of this behavior is arguably front and center now, as many would argue that there is a wave of populist movements occurring globally, coming after the COVID-19 pandemic and the elevated inflation that followed. As detailed in a report published by Goldman Sachs earlier this year, elections in more than 80 nations and territories occurred this year. As noted in the report, a common observation among political scholars is the growing “democratic backsliding” occurring within sovereign states. Democratic backsliding is a process of declining integrity for democratic values or institutions in a political system.
Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment, populist movements appear to be gaining momentum. As such, some voters are seeking alternatives to current parties or policies, which may be leaving traditional incumbents in places like the U.S. and Europe at a disadvantage during this election cycle, potentially setting the stage for less liberal challengers and some populists to succeed. In Europe, the 2024 European Parliament elections saw a significant shift to the right in many countries, and populist parties gained votes and seats across the EU. Similarly, the re-election of Donald Trump is a strong indication of a return to conservatism.
Why The Rise In Populism?
Though the fast-moving technological developments occurring in our modern society arguably contribute to populism's rise, the COVID-19 pandemic was an inflection point that shifted the global landscape and is viewed by many as an impetus for where we are now. Using history as a guide, research published in the American Journal of Public Health draws a connection between worsening public health and the support for radical political views, using the 1918 influenza pandemic and the rise of Italian fascism as a reference point.
The researchers found statistically significant evidence from the quantitative and qualitative analyses conducted to support their thesis. As emphasized in the research’s main findings, “Mussolini’s newspaper tended to blame “others” for the pandemic, such as Spaniards, and portrayed themselves as the voice of the common people against an out-of-touch “elite,” exploiting the health crisis for political gain.”
Drawing parallels from the research, the extrapolated idea is that the COVID-19 pandemic boosted populist sentiment in regions where public health declined and mortality rose. As stated in the research’s main findings, “counties where life expectancy stagnated or declined between 1980 and 2014 were more likely to swing toward support for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Similarly, communities experiencing worsening health in the United Kingdom saw greater support for Brexit. The same association also holds in different historical junctures. For instance, worsening mortality rates in German localities in the early 1930s were positively associated with the rise of the Nazi Party and influenza deaths in 1918 also correlated with the Nazi electoral boost.”
Simply put, a decline in public health and the economic hardship it potentially initiates can be a political catalyst that shifts members of society towards more populist ideologues.
Populism During A Precarious Period
The global economy is presently in a precarious position where technological advancement and innovation could upend many of the accepted practices and concepts of the present. Furthermore, regional conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe (i.e., Russia – Ukraine), for which individuals have passionate opinions, can widen the ideological divide within our society.
Given the range of global activities, the move to populism can be viewed as a validation of the Social Cycle Theory, which posits that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles. The rise of populist movements can be a powerful sentiment that could be a deciding factor for voters at the ballot box. While the inevitability of change is often challenging to convey to individuals facing it, humanity is also resilient and able to overcome the odds.
Crossroads Summit 2024: Navigating Chaos, Innovate For The Future
With so much potential uncertainty ahead, navigating the seeming chaos will likely be top of mind for many investors. It is this chaos that The Crossroads Summit seeks to help investors cut through. The summit gathers leaders from various sectors – including technology, business, geopolitics, education and public policy, among others – to discuss the global economy's critical issues and what the future could bring.
Speakers include some of the brightest minds in their industries, including Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) chief innovation officer Michael Jabbour, and Wall Street investor Cathie Wood. Panel discussion topics include “Strategic Adaptation: Preparing for Turbulence in the U.S. Landscape,” “Navigating the End of The World: Geopolitics and the Future of America” and “The New Economy: Bitcoin and the Rise of Alternative Hard Assets,” among others.
The summit aims to inspire collaborative efforts that bring about meaningful change and identify opportunities in the chaos. Speakers will explore solutions to societal problems by emphasizing empowerment, innovation and entrepreneurship. This year’s broad theme, Navigating Chaos, Innovate For the Future, will focus on the rapid pace of change today, discussing topics like AI advancement, political and economic uncertainty and the increase in armed conflict globally, among others. Presenting thought leaders and visionaries at this year’s summit will share their insights into these themes and talk of innovative potential solutions for the future.
The 2024 Crossroads Summit could be an excellent forum for investors and leaders to exchange and receive knowledge and forge relationships based on societal advancement – and prepare themselves to make the most of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term.
Featured photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash.
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