What Happened?
Shares of exercise equipment company Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) fell 8.4% in the afternoon session as stocks tumbled (Nasdaq down 1.3%, S&P 500 down 1.1%) after the Fed signaled that there would be fewer cuts ahead (than expected) during the December 2024 FOMC meeting.
This announcement followed the committee's decision to reduce rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.25%–4.5%, which was largely in line with consensus forecasts. Looking ahead to 2025, the Fed is expected to implement two quarter-point rate cuts, suggesting that future policy adjustments will be implemented at a slower pace, with the committee reiterating a data-driven approach that factors future inflation data and updates on the labor market.
As a reminder, the driver of a stock's value is the sum of its future cash flows discounted back to today. The result of lower interest rates, all else equal, is higher stock valuations. This is especially true for higher-growth stocks, such as those in the technology sector, where the current value depends more on cash flows many years out in the future.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Is now the time to buy Peloton? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
What The Market Is Telling Us
Peloton’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 64 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 7 days ago when the stock gained 5% on the news that the major indices soared, with the Nasdaq up 1.4%, while the S&P rose 0.7% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2024 which was in-line with expectations. The CPI rose 0.3% from the previous month, while headline inflation rose 2.7% year on year, nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target but not quite there yet. The market reaction suggests investors interpreted the report as a signal for the Fed to lower rates, reinforcing expectations of a 0.25% cut at the December 2024 meeting.
Peloton is up 62.6% since the beginning of the year, but at $9.47 per share, it is still trading 10.5% below its 52-week high of $10.57 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Peloton’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $296.80.
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