California could feasibly and responsibly develop as much as 3 GW of offshore wind by 2030, 10-15 GW by 2045, and 20 GW by 2050, according to proposed targets from the state's energy planning agency.

The California State Assembly directed the California Energy Commission (CEC) to evaluate the maximum capacity of offshore wind development and establish planning goals for 2030 and 2045.

CEC released the draft goals on May 6 and must complete a final strategic plan for offshore wind by June 23, 2023.

Additional reports informing planners on the economic benefits of seaport investments and workforce development, as well as the establishment of a permitting roadmap, are due no later than Dec. 31, 2022.

Because of the deep waters along the U.S. Pacific Coast, floating offshore wind technology is needed to unlock California's 200 GW offshore wind development potential, according to an assessment by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

"(These goals) show that California is serious about going big on floating offshore wind to drive economies of scale and realize the substantial jobs, climate, and clean power benefits from responsibly developing this remarkable renewable energy resource," said Adam Stern, executive director of Offshore Wind California.

During the RENEWABLE+ Series session on floating offshore wind in April, Stern identified state procurement as one of the most important aspects to rapidly scaling California's offshore wind industry.

In its latest integrated resource plan, the California Public Utilities Commission included, for the first time, offshore wind, although at a modest target of 1.7 GW by 2032. The CPUC said it will evaluate the results of a CAISO study on the transmission needs and costs to interconnect around 8 GW of offshore wind, which will be included in the next IRP cycle.

Stern rightfully predicted in April that "we're going to see those numbers in the CPUC's plans ramp up, and I think that ultimately will be a great confidence booster for the developers that there's actually someone who's going to take the power from the ocean and bring it to the grid."

Strategic procurement targets are "everything" to developers, according to Jonah Margulis, Aker Offshore Wind's senior vice president for U.S. operations.

The CEC draft goals take into account two federal lease auctions planned for this fall.

The Humboldt WEA contains 132,369 acres of the ocean for potential offshore wind development, which could bring up to 1.6 GW of clean energy to California’s grid. The 240,898 acres within the Morro Bay WEA are some 20 miles off San Luis Obispo County, California. The area is expected to bring 3 GW of clean energy to the grid when fully developed.

The respective depths of 900-1,300m and 500-1,100m for the Morro Bay and Humboldt WEAs require floating offshore wind technology.

Varner Seaman, program director on offshore wind for American Clean Power-California, called the CEC draft plan ambitious, but achievable, and commended the agency's work to align with the goals set out by California lawmakers in Assembly Bill 525 last year.

“American Clean Power-California looks forward to working with the Commission to ensure these goals continue to serve as the state’s targets—and anchor the strategic plan due next year outlining exactly how and when we can move forward to stand up this first-of-its-kind renewable energy industry on the West Coast," Seaman said.

The CEC's strategic plan aims to inform grid regulators, policymakers, and developers on the steps needed to achieve the development targets.

What will follow the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management's lease auctions is a race to build out the infrastructure needed to help the industry thrive for years to come. Both electric grid constraints and port availability remain challenges for the first two development areas offshore California.

The Humboldt Bay area can support around 150 MW of additional capacity without substantial grid upgrades, according to a report on the U.S. floating offshore wind market by the Global Wind Energy Council. Morro Bay is less constrained due to the impending retirement of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant.

When it comes to transmission planning, California has the benefit of a single grid operator in CAISO. Necy Sumait, regional supervisor for BOEM's Office of Strategic Resources, said CAISO has been proactive on transmission planning to meet the needs of offshore wind with support from the agency.

In February, CAISO released its first-ever 20-year transmission outlook that factored in transmission support for 10 GW of offshore wind.

"The North Coast, where there's greater wind, that's a little more challenging in terms of transmission but California has already started the planning process," Sumait said. "I think there's a good roadmap going forward."

There are currently no ports along the West Coast that are capable of supporting floating offshore wind activities, according to a recent report by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Principle Power, while based in California, had to go to Europe to demonstrate the viability and the bankability of its floating offshore wind platform technology. But Antoine Peiffer, the company's vice president of engineering, said he has seen encouraging progress on port planning in recent months.

In March, the California Energy Commission approved a $10.5 million grant for renovations at the Port of Humboldt Bay to support floating offshore wind activities. The grant will fund preliminary engineering and design work, conducting site surveys and special studies, preparing necessary environmental impact assessments, implementing early construction, and initiating environmental mitigation measures.

"This is really encouraging because we need these types of facilities to be revitalized to serve this incoming industry," Peiffer said during the RENEWABLE+ Series. "What we're doing is trying to raise awareness and work with developers to understand how we're going to deploy these big scale projects."

Floating offshore wind developers and suppliers will also have to comply with the Jones Act for vessel deployment. The industry has some advantages over fixed-bottom offshore wind, though, since floating offshore wind turbines and platforms are largely completed at port.