Although 2023 started with a bang, partly recovering some 2022 losses, Bitcoin price has been stuck in a prolonged period of sideways trading.
However, historical data mirrors previous cycles and suggests a potential shift in November, setting the stage for a rally leading up to the next Bitcoin halving event.
Comparing current BTC price action with previous cyclesMarket analysts have noted that the current sideways price action of Bitcoin closely resembles what has been observed in previous cycles leading up to halving events.
The current stagnant phase typically spans from the second quarter to the fourth quarter in pre-halving years.
An expected turnaround in NovemberHistorical data points to November as a pivotal month for Bitcoin price.
In both 2015 and 2019, Bitcoin saw significant price gains after approximately six months of sideways trading. Analysts believe that November 21st, in particular, has historically marked the start of an upward trend for Bitcoin’s price leading up to the halving event.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around 60% below its all-time high. This position is similar to where it was approximately 200 days before the previous halving events in 2015 and 2019. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in late April or early May 2024, depending on the countdown timer used.
Bitcoin Halving in Just 200 Days 😳
Ever wondered where Bitcoin was 200 days before in the previous halvings?
In 2016, BTC was -65% below its ATH.
In 2019, BTC was -60% below its ATH.
In 2023, BTC is currently -60% below its ATH.
So, even if it seems like Bitcoin's price… pic.twitter.com/H8dlWcM91y
While historical patterns provide valuable insights, some analysts also consider macroeconomic factors. Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, in a recent report suggested that Bitcoin’s price surge may be influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve rate hikes and a surge in institutions investing in BTC, which can impact the cryptocurrency’s performance.
In general, analysts and observers are in agreement that the next major Bitcoin bull market is likely to materialize in the year following the Bitcoin halving. This expectation is rooted in historical trends and the supply-reduction effect of halving events.
As Bitcoin traders and enthusiasts look to November as a potential turning point, the cryptocurrency market remains dynamic and influenced by a range of factors. Investors should continue exercising caution, conducting thorough research, and considering the broader economic landscape when making investment decisions in the world of cryptocurrencies.
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