There's no doubt that the President of the United States can wield tremendous influence on economic policies through their agenda, but will the residential real estate market be moved over who wins the White House? Not this year, according to the analysts at Realtor.com.
In an update to its 2024 forecast this week, the online real estate site said in a note that while the race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is a "wildcard," the company does not anticipate any significant changes in housing policy, no matter who wins.
"We don’t expect the wildcard election year to be that wild on the economy or housing market in 2024 since both the Republican and Democratic candidates have served in the White House recently," the report states, adding, "Markets should be able to handle whomever is elected, though acknowledging that the closer the race, the tougher it is to predict the outcome, which can spark volatility."
One point that may bolster Realtor.com's view is that the policies of the Federal Reserve – which controls the interest rates that are currently hindering movement in the housing market – are unlikely to change in the short term, regardless of which candidate wins.
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President Biden has been supportive of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and will remain in office until January of next year. If Harris wins the election, she is expected to continue the agenda of the Biden-Harris administration, including keeping Powell at the helm of the central bank.
Trump recently declared that if he wins in November, he would allow Powell to serve out his term, which ends in May 2026.
Yet, in the long term, whoever wins the White House could make a significant difference when it comes to housing policy.
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Newsweek reported Thursday that Harris "plans to shake up [the] housing market" if elected, pointing to the Biden-Harris administration's new announcement of some $100 million more in federal grants aimed at boosting the supply of housing in an effort to bring down prices.
The outlet also noted that Harris vowed at a recent campaign rally that, if elected, her administration "will take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases," endorsing federal rent control measures, as the Biden-Harris administration recently proposed.
But under the Biden-Harris administration, home prices have ballooned to new records, while mortgage rates have soared, causing an affordability crisis that has continued to escalate.
Trump is capitalizing on that situation, reminding voters last week that "You could buy a house, you had low interest rates, 2% interest rates."
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Real estate investor Dr. David Phelps, founder of Freedom Founders, disagrees with Realtor.com's assessment that there won't be a disruption in the real estate market following the election. But after that, he told FOX Business, given the two candidates' track records, he believes "Trump’s policies would likely improve the housing market, while Harris’s would destroy it."
