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Treasuries
7-10 Year Treasury Bond Ishares ETF
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-0.50 (-0.53%)
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Updated: 4:15 PM EDT, Jun 28, 2024
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US Recession Risk For Q3 Continues To Fade
August 17, 2023
It’s been clear for some time that US recession risk has been sliding in recent months, but this week’s updates of a widely followed GDP nowcast has been revised up, a lot, for the third quarter.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Economy
US Inflation: Fiscal Policy Incompatible With Monetary Policy
August 17, 2023
The US economy showed unexpected resilience in the final quarter, and the record activity is undoubtedly behind the upturn in inflation in the country.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Economy
Interest Rates
AI Stocks Bubble Popping Or Buy The Dip?
August 16, 2023
A break down of the trade action in today's sell side activity, and a closer look at AI stocks.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Artificial Intelligence
Exposures
Artificial Intelligence
Larry Summers Predicts 10-Year Yields Will Hit 4.75% Or Higher In Next Decade As Economy Shifts To 'New Era'
August 16, 2023
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says rising government deficits and increasing inflation will factor into a 4.75% or higher yield on 10-year Treasuries in the decade ahead.
Via
Benzinga
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Economy
Interest Rates
Has Treasury Market Misjudged Timing For Peak Rates… Again?
August 16, 2023
For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked, or were about to peak.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Economy
Exposures
Debt Markets
Interest Rates
Have Bonds Finally Reached Escape Velocity?
August 15, 2023
Higher bond yields create a sort of escape velocity at some point where the interest payments offset the interest rate risk.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Exposures
Debt Markets
No GDP Downturn Forecasted: SPF
August 12, 2023
In contrast to the July WSJ survey, the just-released Survey of Professional Forecasters mean forecast shows no negative GDP growth.
Via
Talk Markets
What America’s Debt Downgrade Means For Investors
August 08, 2023
Fitch’s downgrade could make our debt more expensive. Typically, the lower the rating, the higher the interest rate the issuer has to pay.
Via
Talk Markets
Your Mid-August Market Update: Selling And Scanning
August 15, 2023
Stock indexes slid 1% today with bonds closing weaker, down at 2023 lows as interest rates traded up to highs in 2023.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Exposures
Debt Markets
Gold The Big Five Come Alive
August 15, 2023
Five major fundamental and technical events need to occur for a major buy alert for gold and silver stocks.
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: A Positive Feedback Loop?
August 14, 2023
If real interest rates reflect investment demand in the real economy – and that’s pretty standard theory – then rising real rates is obviously a positive sign for the future.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Economy
Greenback Remains Firm, With Yen And Aussie Falling To New 2023 Lows
August 14, 2023
The dollar and US rates remain firm. The greenback rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and Australian dollar before steadying.
Via
Talk Markets
CoT: Peeking Into Future Through Futures, Hedge Funds Positioning
August 13, 2023
Equity bears who were zealously shorting at/near the low from last October contributed massively to the rally that followed. Between that low (3492) and the high of July 27 (4607), the S&P 500 shot up...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Stocks
Exposures
US Equities
Things That Make Me Go Hmmmm…
August 08, 2023
A look at three current charts that influence my thinking about markets as we enter a seasonally difficult period.
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: Action At Both Ends Of The Curve
August 08, 2023
In the US, we reiterate the notion that the 10yr yield can't really break lower, as there is no room to do so.
Via
Talk Markets
What If Disinflation Is Just An Illusion?
August 04, 2023
That may, in fact, be the message in the bond market…
Via
Talk Markets
Technical Market Report For August 12, 2023
August 12, 2023
The breadth indicators are all headed downward. Seasonality is modestly negative for the coming week.
Via
Talk Markets
Biden Sours The Sentiment By Calling China A "Ticking Time Bomb," Hotter PPI Against Stock Market Momo Narrative; Money Flows Negative In Apple, Tesla, And Nvidia
August 11, 2023
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Via
Benzinga
Dollar Proves Resilient And Even Strong UK GDP Figures Hardly Dents It
August 11, 2023
The dollar's resilience after initially selling off in response to the as-expected CPI was impressive.
Via
Talk Markets
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Friday, Aug. 11
August 11, 2023
The 10-year rate closed at 4.09% yesterday, modestly above the level when last month’s fair-value estimate was updated (3.86%).
Via
Talk Markets
Bonds Over Earnings?
August 03, 2023
Via
Talk Markets
Inflation, Disinflation, And Misinformation
August 10, 2023
A look at the CPI data to see if inflation remains high or if we are being misinformed.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
The Greenback Is Softer Ahead Of CPI But Key Chart Points Remain Intact
August 10, 2023
The focus is on today's July US CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.2% rise economists are largely looking for, will translate into the first rise in the year-over-year rate since June 2022 when it...
Via
Talk Markets
After Strong Demand For US Three-Year Notes, Treasury Will Sell $38 Bln 10-Year Notes
August 09, 2023
The Treasury sells $38 bln 10-year notes, whose auctions have been less than stellar recently. The US 10-year yield reached 4.20% last week and is now straddling 4%.
Via
Talk Markets
Markets Continue To Signal A Risk-On Bias Prevails
August 09, 2023
The recent rally in risk assets has confounded some analysts, but right or wrong the revival in animal spirits still has momentum, based on several proxies of market behavior via ETF pairs through...
Via
Talk Markets
Asia Morning Bites - Monday, Aug. 7
August 07, 2023
Asian Markets have yet to fully respond to Friday's mixed payrolls report. Indonesian 2Q23 GDP today
Via
Talk Markets
Peek Into Future Thru Futures, CoT; How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
August 06, 2023
Via
Talk Markets
A Rally Back, Or Ready For Another Smack?
August 04, 2023
If inflation upticks expect volume to rage.
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Rocket Again While Metals Hold Their Ground
August 04, 2023
Typically, on this kind of move in bonds, gold and silver sell off as banks balance their books, but not this time.
Via
Talk Markets
Rates, Budget Deficit, Treasury Debt Issuance And Federal Interest Payments – All Rising
August 04, 2023
The federal government sits on nearly $33 trillion in debt, and the budget deficit is on the rise even though the economy is growing. This only means persistently rising interest payments.
Via
Talk Markets
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