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Stocks Drop On January 5 As Fed’s Grip Grows Tighter
April 05, 2022
The S&P 500 fell by roughly 1.25%, while the Nasdaq finished down over 2%. Today’s drop quickly erased yesterday’s advance.
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: What Now?
April 04, 2022
The yield curve inverted last week. Well, the part everyone watches, the 10 year/2 year Treasury yield spread, inverted, closing the week a solid 7 basis points in the negative.
Via
Talk Markets
The Logical-Invest Newsletter For April 2022
April 03, 2022
Most of our strategies were positive as the market rebounded from last month’s selloff. Let's take a closer look at how our portfolio performed.
Via
Talk Markets
Inflation Expectations And Forecasts
April 02, 2022
Taken literally, average expected inflation over the next five years is coming down. Except for short-term, the surveys indicate a deceleration in inflation relative to today’s levels.
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: The Cure For High Prices
March 28, 2022
There’s an old Wall Street maxim that the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices. As prices rise two things will generally limit the scope of the increase.
Via
Talk Markets
Inflation Outlook
February 23, 2022
US inflation remains elevated and appears on track to remain so for the immediate future.
Via
Talk Markets
Inflation Thoughts
February 19, 2022
The first part of this letter is going to be a general discussion around the concept of inflation and the second part will get into what you really want to know, which is the likely path of inflation...
Via
Talk Markets
9 Monster Stock Market Predictions For The Week Of March 28
March 27, 2022
It will be a critical week for stocks after weeks of gains. The S&P 500 finished Friday in an exciting spot and at more than one inflection point. It may mark the start of a bigger run higher to the...
Via
Talk Markets
Government Solutions Worsen Every Problem Government Creates
March 25, 2022
Stocks are going up and down while gold is just going up. Bond prices are a function of government intervention and nothing else.
Via
Talk Markets
Where Treasury & TIPS Yields May Be Headed?
March 23, 2022
The March FOMC meeting confirmed one very important issue for the money and bond markets: rates are going to continue to go up.
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: All Clear?
March 21, 2022
Stocks staged a furious rebound last week based on…well, I’m not exactly sure what it was based on other than the relief that oil prices didn’t continue to go straight up.
Via
Talk Markets
Risk-On Sentiment Resumed For Most Markets Last Week
March 21, 2022
Most markets around the world staged a strong rebound last week, led by stocks in foreign developed markets ex-US.
Via
Talk Markets
US Bond Market Under Pressure As Fed Raises Interest Rates
March 17, 2022
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its target interest rate by ¼ point, the first hike since 2018.
Via
Talk Markets
Inflation-Protected Treasuries Rose As Global Markets Fell
March 14, 2022
In another week of widespread selling of the major asset classes, US inflation-indexed Treasuries continued to rise.
Via
Talk Markets
Consumers And Markets Both Agree, It’s Not Consumer Price Inflation
March 12, 2022
Throw some Eastern European geopolitics into the mix, and surely consumers have been shoved over to the dark side of inflation.
Via
Talk Markets
Recession? The Term Spread Over The Past Four Recessions
March 08, 2022
The evolution of the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spread in the months preceding the last four recessions.
Via
Talk Markets
Commodities Continue To Soar As Ukraine War Rages
March 07, 2022
Commodities remained the best-performing asset class by far last week for the major asset classes.
Via
Talk Markets
Gold: Understanding What’s Driving Prices Higher
March 07, 2022
The Russian/Ukraine crisis has been boosting inflation expectations. Remember, if oil prices are high then that increases inflation expectations.
Via
Talk Markets
Will Oil’s Spike Cause A Recession And Bear Market?
March 05, 2022
Learning from past supply disruptions. Also: Are bull/bear charts starting to roll over in the bear's favor?
Via
Talk Markets
February 2022 Performance Review - Major Asset Classes
March 01, 2022
Most markets around the world continued to slide in February, marking the second month of widespread losses in 2022 for the major asset classes.
Via
Talk Markets
SOTU x 2
March 01, 2022
Both the State of the Ukraine and the State of the Union will hold the attention of markets today, the first day of March 2022.
Via
Talk Markets
Stocks Drop On February 28 But The Real Risk Doesn’t Come Until Wednesday
February 28, 2022
Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 falling around 24 bps, certainly not the disaster that many analysts envisioned given the sanction the US and Europe put on Russia.
Via
Talk Markets
Markets Tested Risk-On Sentiment Last Week As War Rages Today
February 28, 2022
Markets tried to look through Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week, but as the brutal reality of war becomes clearer, and economic blowback spreads across the global economy, sentiment will come...
Via
Talk Markets
The Stock Market Rally Is Not Likely To Last
February 25, 2022
Stocks have ripped higher since February 24 as real rates plunged sparking a massive short-covering rally. But it does not change the overarching problem, the Fed.
Via
Talk Markets
Real Yields Plunge On February 24, Sparking A Massive Short Covering Event
February 24, 2022
Days like today are impossible to understand, and the only thing one can do is try and put the pieces together.
Via
Talk Markets
Foreign Inflation-Indexed Bonds Led Global Markets Last Week
February 21, 2022
In a mixed week for performances of the major asset classes, inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US posted the strongest gain.
Via
Talk Markets
Russian Crisis To Bring Another Leg Down In Stocks?
February 19, 2022
Stocks are retesting the Jan. 24 lows. Are there any signs pointing to a successful retest? What are the latest developments on inflation?
Via
Talk Markets
Federal Reserve’s Own Inflation Expectations Surveys More Agree With EuroDollar Futures Inversion Than Rate Hikes
February 15, 2022
The FOMC is going to hike rates maybe even aggressively. There’s not much dispute on this assumption.
Via
Talk Markets
Commodities Continued Rising Last Week, Topping Global Markets
February 14, 2022
A broad measure of commodities continued rising last week, delivering the strongest performance by far for the major asset classes.
Via
Talk Markets
What the Bond Market is Saying About the Great Inflation Debate
February 09, 2022
So far, the financial markets are confident that the Fed will contain inflation in the future and are content with real interest rates well in negative territory.
Via
Talk Markets
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